A WILD week of fourth quarter lead changes gave ESPN’s win probability model all kinds of issues. With all of the action yesterday, one of the biggest fantasy days of the year was an afterthought. Derrick Henry went for 238 and 4 touchdowns, one of which for 99 yards, and unfortunately for most was likely riding the pine! While last week was limiting in obvious upside plays, this week figures to be much more friendly for the DFS crowd.
Last Week’s Performance: 95.34 FFP
QB: Philip Rivers ($6200)
The standout name of this week’s four QBs is Patrick Mahomes, but you will have to shell out several hundred dollars more for him. Instead I will go with another secondary MVP candidate in Rivers. Yesterday broke his multi-TD streak that had been ongoing all season, but as the QB5 by points there are plenty of reasons for optimism. The Chiefs while a juggernaut on offense have been leaky (to say the least) on defense allowing the most pass yards in the league. This division game could have playoff seeding implications and chasing points often leads to fantasy gold.
RB: Spencer Ware and Chris Carson ($5300 and $4700)
A couple of lower ceiling, but high floor RB plays this week. Both Ware and Carson are locked in to solid volume with 15+ touches per game since both have taken over as lead backs. Ware, who went 15/75 and 5/54 against a tough Ravens D, gets another tough draw but shares of the Chiefs attack have paid off all year. Carson is in a similar situation against a strong Vikings front, but the Seahawks ball control approach has made him a strong RB2 option.
WR: Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett ($8000, $6700, $5400)
Stacking Allen and Rivers has been a recipe for success all season. The clear target leader and one of the best route runners in the game, Allen has scored in 5 straight games and has failed to clear 5 catches or 70 yards just once in 7 weeks. Did I mention that the Chargers will have to keep up with the Chiefs AND that they allow the most receiving yards in the NFL? Diggs and Adam Thielen have teamed up to form one of the league’s best receiving duos. Diggs at a reduced cost looks like a value against a Seahawks secondary that is especially prone to outside receivers (Davante Adams, Marvin Jones, even Dante Pettis whipped them for 5/129/1). Lockett has long been thought of as a better athlete than football player, but appears to have figured it all out this year. The Seahawks have opted to flip the script and run over pass this year, but Lockett has delivered 70 yards or a score in 10 of 12 games. Doug Baldwin will also be held out with an injury increasing Lockett’s target distribution.
TE: Travis Kelce ($7000)
Kelce has been on fire lately, and pretty much all season, by posting almost 9 catches over 100 yards and a touchdown for the last month. The Chargers, who erased him week 1, are no slouches against the TE but Kelce is in a league of his own and at this point is matchup proof. Considering the other options this week Kyle Rudolph, Nick Vannett, and Antonio Gates are more likely to put up goose eggs than anything I have to splurge on Baby Gronk.
Flex Options: Mike Williams, Chris Conley, David Moore, Damien Williams ($4400 or less)
Williams has become a touchdown dependent WR3/4, but the price tag and stack with Rivers is encticing. MikeWill has supplanted Tyrell Williams as the team’s #2 and if forced to chase points against that secondary should return a solid game. Conley and Williams are both interesting options to monitor because of injury questions to the usual suspects. If either of Tyreke Hill or the aforementioned Ware are forced out of action due to their questionable tags these two step into high volume roles on a high flying offense. David Moore became viable with Doug Baldwin being ruled out late Monday. His targets have been inconsistent, but he has flashed in boom weeks.
Defense: Seattle Seahawks ($2800)
Of the four options the Seahawks at home seem like the safest option. The Vikings’ offense can certainly put up points, but limited by a shaky offense line Kirk Cousins has been forced to take sacks and prone to turnovers. The Viking defense has been stout against the run, but injuries in the secondary have put a damper on their fantasy prospects. I don’t anticipate much defense this coming Thursday and would rank both of them below the two discussed here.
Best of luck!