Player Props, Locks, and Drops: MNF Week 11

64 points, the highest total Vegas has set for an NFL game, may not be high enough for these two teams. I’m not considering any fantasy leads safe as long as my opponents have players rolling tonight. This could very well be a Super Bowl preview! Where do I begin with so much firepower on offense and some glaring deficiencies on defense?

Record: 22-22-1

Kareem Hunt Total Receptions: Over 3.5

Hunt, the “other” running back in this game, is primed to have some success tonight with the Rams stacked line surprisingly allowing almost 5 yards per carry. However, what I expect to see is Hunt’s versatility as a receiver. The Rams bring the highest pressure percentage in the league against a QB in Mahomes that can create under duress. Most running backs against the Rams have success through the air because of this need for an outlet; they allow almost 6 receptions per game to running backs. Hunt has flashed as a pass catcher with three straight games of five receptions (weeks 6-8) against high pressure defense. I think his 84.5 rushing total is in play as well.

Travis Kelce Total Receiving Yards: Over 80

Kelce, the team target leader, should feast against the Rams secondary allowing inside the top 10 to tight ends in the league. There are few TE’s that rival the skill set of Kelce with the closest comparison being George Kittle’s 5 catches for 98 yards and a score a few weeks back. In this track meet, I will be looking for Kelce to pick up yards in chunks as well as picking up receptions in the 6-7+ range depending on the flow of the game.

Robert Woods Total Receptions: Over 5.5

Woods has quietly become one of the most reliable pass catchers on this Ram’s offense in the absence of Cooper Kupp. He has averaged over 6 grabs per game and has cleared 70 yards through the air in 9 straight games (note: I also like him to approach the 86 yard total tonight). Woods will likely play both inside and out as evidenced by his usage in games with Kupp’s previous injury. In addition to the 7 extra targets per game that went to Kupp we can expect that the nature of tonight’s game to feature plenty of explosive plays with both Brandin Cooks and Woods attacking a secondary that allows a league high in 20+ yard plays. I like Cooks, but for me Woods offers more security as a less boom or bust play to Cooks. Let’s be honest, both could be in for a big night along with Todd Gurley.

Todd Gurley Total Rushing Yards: Over 103.5

I hate to say it as I am nursing a 30 point lead against this guy, but man this match up is mouth watering. The high total, a rushing defense that allows over 5 ypc, beatable through the air, etc. all arrows pointing up for Gurley. He may actually vulture his own rush yards by doing damage through the passing game, but there should be plenty to go around tonight. Did I mention that the Chiefs allow the NFL’s most points to running backs?

Other players to watch: Tyreek Hill should have fun whipping Marcus Peters who has surprisingly been near the bottom at air yardage and touchdowns allowed for CBs. Josh Reynolds moving back into the starting lineup would not be a bad bet to top his 37 yard marker. As said earlier, Cooks facing a defense allowing a LOT of big plays should be able to do some damage as well with Jared Goff consistently a top flight QB in home matchups.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s