TNF Week 11: Loser Leaves Town Game

Packers @ Seahawks -2.5; O/U 48

Must win, can’t lose whatever you want to call it – Thursday night’s game between the Packers and Seahawks is a pivotal matchup for both sides. With both teams currently on the outside looking in for a crowded NFC playoff picture, the loser of this one is in serious danger of missing the playoffs. These two teams have a recent history of playing memorable games in Seattle, whether it was the Fail Mary or the Brandon Bostick fumble in the NFC Championship game. Seattle has found itself on the winning side in each of these crazy matchups. Let’s look at some trends going into this one:

  • In the Pete Carroll era, Seattle is 14-2 SU at home in prime time games
  • Packers are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS in their last six road games
  • Seahawks have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL while the Packers have given up 140.6 yards per game on the ground since Week 6, which is the fifth-worst in the NFL over that span

Now these trends are all pointing to Seattle and as discussed on the Week 11 Pick ’em pod, Seahawks are my lock of the week. Is it because of the trends mentioned above? Sure, but there is one trend that sold me on why Seattle is a LOCK in this game.

  • Since the reincarnation of Thursday Night Football in 2006, all team that have flown two time zones west for a Thursday game have lost. In these 11 games, the visiting team has gone 0-11 and failed to cover the spread all 11 times.

What a wild trend but I believe in it. It’s super tough for teams on the short week to turn around and fly west for a game. Especially for the Packers who come into this game super banged up with four starters not making the trip, including Randall Cobb and Nick Perry.

Now if Seattle loses this game and this streak is snapped, you know my locks of the week are cursed. However, I’m confident in this trend and Seattle to get this needed win at home. I expect this to be a close game and fading Aaron Rodgers is scary, but I think Seattle’s run game will be able to control the game and help them pull out the win.

Prediction: Seahawks 28 Packers 23

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