Player Props, Locks, and Drops: Thursday Night Overs Week 11

Tonight’s tilt between the Packers and Seahawks, in Seattle, has the fifth highest game total on the weekly slate at 49.5. What is interesting to me, however, is that normally in a shootout you have a solid floor of players you can trust. Last week, a shootout at least for the Steelers, I hit safely on Juju Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald while Antonio Brown and James Conner both hit their fantasy floors and then some. Greg Olsen missed our total by the hook, but was still actively involved. Tonight’s game has me questioning who I can trust.

Record: 20-20-1

Seattle is effectively employing a committee of three running backs. This instills little confidence in picking one to bet on although all of Chris Carson, Mike Davis, and Rashaad Penny could have fantasy flex appeal. Seattle’s passing game has taken a back seat with sporadic targets for the likes of Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, and David Moore. On the other sideline, the Packers have FINALLY embraced Aaron Jones in games with a lead. Aaron Rodgers will always spread the ball around leaving some question marks behind Davante Adams. A common theme for me tonight will be on the assumption that we will see a higher scoring game and, thanks to my Full Slate companions, the Packers may be playing from behind.

Davante Adams Total Receptions and Yards: Over 6.5/Over 85

This line is right about Adam’s average yardage over this season, but looking at his most recent games might look like a long shot. However, Adams faced two strong cornerback’s the last two weeks and still found the end zones three times in those games. Seattle’s secondary is a shell of what it used to be and Adams should face off with some beatable corner’s. With the team lead in targets and arguably the best red zone receiver in the game Davante Adams will be involved if the Pack get in a hole.

Jimmy Graham Total Receptions: Over 3.5

Graham’s usage has been a roller coaster almost weekly. This week would look to be scheduled with the arrow pointing up. A semi-revenge game for Graham, he faces a Seattle secondary that has faced an extremely soft schedule against the TE position and yet still got carved up by the Ram’s Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett last week. I have to think Graham, even if he’s lost a step, is in a tier or two higher than what the Seahawk’s have faced. Also of note is the absence of linebacker KJ Wright which only helps Graham’s outlook tonight.

Russell Wilson Total Rush Yards: Over 29.5

I fully admit that I have fallen for this trap before, most recently with Dak Prescott, but I believe that Russell is more healthy than he has been this season and running it with confidence. Wilson has 5/41 and 9/92 rushing lines over the last two weeks and finally looks like the two-way fantasy QB that people expected when drafted among the top 6 at the position. This week he faces a Green Bay team has is among the league leaders in blitzes which plays into Wilson’s hands. Russ owns the league’s highest passer rating against the blitz, but more critically for this bet forces a scrambling QB out of the pocket. The lack of a target-hog wide receiver allows Russell to both spread the ball and pull it down and run with confidence over forcing the ball into unfavorable situations. I hope I didn’t just get fooled again, but with some efficiency it may not take much.

 

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