Player Props, Locks, and Drops: Thursday Night Overs Week 9

Back in 2014, a friend and I jumped on the Raiders bandwagon when they drafted two of our favorite prospects in Khalil Mack and Derek Carr. We only got more excited when they added Amari Cooper in the first round the year after. It is safe to say that Chucky Gruden has escorted us off the train. The Niners have faced adversity of their own, bitten by the injury bug. It is unfortunate that this, maybe the last Battle of the Bay, has become a game most are likely to avoid.

Last Thursday we caught another 2-1 winning night while we pour one out for Will Fuller who was money for us, but suffered a season ending ACL tear. Danny Amendola grabbed us a garbage time win as well.

Record: 18-13-1

Doug Martin Rushing Yards: Over 56.5

Martin had not been particularly inspiring before being pushed into a lead back role. However, Gruden who LOVES veteran players gave him a verbal vote of confidence and the workload to prove it as “Muscle Hamster” ran for 72 on 13 carries last week. Two things stick out to me in this spot. First, injuries on both sides should affect Martin positively – No LB Reuben Foster for SF and the return of Oakland Guard Kelechi Osemele. Second, it is very likely that SF QB C.J. Beathard is out (or at the least VERY banged up) which bodes well for an RB that would be phased out in a game script chasing points.

Seth Roberts Total Receptions and Receiving Yards: Over 2.5 and 34.5

Seth Roberts is a mostly unknown slot receiver; you may only recognize the name on a Red Zone Sunday in the past when they flip to “that other guy” vulturing Cooper or Michael Crabtree. Before the Amari Cooper trade he was catching Derek Carr’s eye with games of 4 and 5 receptions. Last week, Roberts had the same number of targets as Jordy Nelson and Brandon Lafell (4) while catching 2 for 42 yards and a score. Also of note, the SF secondary is kind to slot receivers seen most recently reviving Larry Fitzgerald’s season for 8/102/1. This is a player that had already started to carve out a niche and I am betting that he continues to play a role in an offense starving for pass catching play makers.

George Kittle Total Receptions: Over 5

I feel comfortable relying on Kittle despite uncertainty which QB will be under center for the Niners. Kittle has seen 6+ targets in every game since week 3 and has 5+ receptions in 6 of 8 games. He is a key cog and safety blanket in this offense as well as the skill set to stretch the field. Last week, the Colts two TE’s, on par with Kittle’s skill set, carved this Raider team for 10 catches on 11 targets for 133 yards and 3 scores. I will be hoping Beathard is well enough to go, but if Mullens is forced into action rookies tend to target TEs more than WRs.

Other Leans

Jared Cook O57.5 Receiving Yards – One of Carr’s usual suspects and a big play threat, Niners have lost several safeties to injury, Went 4/74/1 last week after two tough matchups.

Matt Breida O57.5 Rushing Yards – Raiders allow over 5 YPC, Could see an increased focus on run game with UDFA Rookie at QB, would have been a lock with more injury confidence, but playing through a high ankle sprain.

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