Sernick’s Super Contest Selections Week 8

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Hey Everyone,

Back at it with another 5 picks for the Sernick’s Super Contest. I went 3-2 again last week bringing my record to 6-4 with a profit of 1.45 units. Looking forward to building off last week and making some more money.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (buy the half point) -130

The Bengals are in a great spot this week. They just got crushed by the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Bucs just got a big win ending their three game losing streak in an overtime win versus the Browns. This is buying low off a big loss. Teams that have lost their previous game are a whopping 52-32-5 ATS the following week good for a cover 61.9% of the time. Although Jameis is playing well, the Bengals defense will rebound after a poor performance against the Chiefs. Dalton will torch the terrible Bucs defense and deliver a strong performance. Cincinnati wins and covers the -3.

Trends to Note:

  • Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home after failing to cover their most recent home game
  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in games before a bye
  • Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 AT Carolina Panthers

Baltimore is coming off a heartbreaking loss after Justin Tucker missed his first extra point ever in professional and college football, which was extremely lucky for us who tailed Saints ML. The Panthers are coming off a comeback victory over the Eagles, outscoring them 21-0 in the fourth quarter. Looking at last week people would have assumed the Panthers would be favored here at home. However, Carolina was scoreless for three quarters against a defense that was torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick. I expect the Ravens defense to shut down Cam Newton and his uninspiring offensive weapons and give Flacco good field position all game.

Trends to Note:

  • Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
  • Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 at home
  • Panthers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home

Los Angeles Rams -9 vs Green Bay Packers

This is the largest spread Aaron Rodgers has ever faced. He has never been more than a touchdown dog. Aaron Rodgers is usually the guy you want to back as an underdog. Not this week and not this Packers team. The Packers have struggled on the road losing to Washington and Detroit in their only two road games. The Rams are so much better than both the Lions and Redskins. Their offense is so dynamic; they can beat you in the air with Goff, and on the ground with Gurley and the Packers defense is not great. The defense gave up 30 points at home to CJ Beathard! I repeat CJ Beathard! Rams will explode offensively and generate enough stops on defense to make this a two score game.

Trends to Note:

  • Packers are 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road
  • Rams are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 at home

Indianapolis Colts -2.5 AT Oakland Raiders

This game is simple for me; the Raiders are trash. They are starting to trade away all their valuable players for future assets and tanking this year. The players have not bought into Gruden and his albatross of a contract. Derek Carr has struggled all year and he lost his most dynamic offensive weapon. On the other hand, the Colts finally found a running game. Andrew Luck has never had a real running game to set up play action and Marlon Mack was outstanding last week. Look for him to exploit a mediocre Raiders run defense and Andrew Luck to hit a few big plays with TY Hilton to beat the helpless Raiders.

Bonus play: Colts +2000 to win the division. The Colts are 2-5 2.5 games out of first place. However, they have the best QB in the AFC south and the rest of their schedule is: @ Oakland, BYE, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Miami, @ Jacksonville, @ Houston, Dallas, New York Giants, @ Tennessee. These are all winnable games and the last 3 games could be against teams already out of the playoff hunt. Take a flier now while you can still get great value

Trends to Note:

  • Colts are 1-6 SU in their last 7 on the road
  • Colts are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games in Oakland
  • Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 at ome

Arizona Cardinals -1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers

Arizona is coming off an embarrassing loss in primetime while the 49ers are coming off a beat down by the Rams after nearly beating the Packers in Lambeau the week before. The difference between the two teams are rest. The Cardinals played on Thursday the 49ers played Sunday afternoon. The Cardinals just fired their offensive coordinator who has been brutally under utilizing David Johnson and his immense skill set. Byron Leftwich is now the new offensive coordinator and as long as he get David Johnson the ball more in space, he will be successful. The Cardinals are familiar with the 49ers winning 8 of the last 10. Cardinals get their second win of the season against a team who they already beat this year.

Trends to Note:

  • 49ers are 0-3 ATS on the Road this year
  • 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
  • Cardinals are 4-2 ATS at home in their last 6 games

 

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