Not a bad start for my first week writing the blog with a 3-2 finish with a +0.5 unit weekend. I was lucky the Brocketship was able to help guide my pick to victory even though I was expecting Tannehill to be playing and Denver completed a nice backdoor cover. Tough loss in the Bengals game coming back to take the lead then not closing it out and my god was my Titans pick bad. Now on to this week:
Detroit Lions -3 AT Miami Dolphins
Last week I was all over Miami coming off a brutal loss and the Bears coming off a bye and blow out win. This week I will be looking to fade the Dolphins. The Dolphins were fortunate to win that game. Some incredible plays by Albert Wilson kept them in the game along with two Bears turnovers in the red zone. Osweiller threw two bad picks and I see that happening again this week. The Lions defensive line should be able to get to Osweiller and the safety combo of Quin and Diggs should be able to prevent the big play. As for the Lions offense, the offensive line has been playing well leading up to the bye and will get guard TJ Lang back this week. This should help open up more running lanes for Kerryon Johnson. Look for him to have a big day along with a few play action shots to Golladay, Tate and Jones to help the Lions cover the three.
Trends to Note:
- Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last six games
- Miami is 4-2 ATS in their last six and 5-1 ATS in the last six games at home
New Orleans Saints ML +125 AT Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans has been one of the hottest teams since week 1 and each week the defense has gotten better and better. They are beginning to look like the team they were at the end of last season, which was one win away from the NFC Championship game. Ingram is back from suspension and he looked great in his first game back making the Saints look like the most dynamic offense in football. Although Drew Brees has struggled on the road in outdoor stadiums the run game should help allow Brees to settle in and do just enough against a very strong Ravens D. On the flip side, the Ravens have been a very strong team through six weeks with a 4-2 record. However, I am still not sold on this offense. Flacco is an average quarterback at best and they have not been able to get the running game going with Alex Collins and Buck Allen. I think the Saints defense continues too build off its rough start shut down the Ravens.
Trends to Note:
- New Orleans is 4-1 SU in their last five games
- Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games at home after consecutive road games
- Sean Payton is 7-4 SU coming off a bye
Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 vs Houston Texans
This is a huge game for the Jags after getting embarrassed in their last two outings. The defense was just gashed by a Dallas team that isn’t exactly a top tier NFL offense. Good news for Jacksonville, they are coming home to face a Texans team with the worst offensive line in football. Deshaun has been hit or sacked a league high 88 times through six weeks. Jacksonville on the other hand has one of the best defensive fronts in the league. Look for Jacksonville to pressure Watson into a few mistakes and even get a defensive score this week. Offensively, I think Bortles rebounds. He has had some rough games in the past but typically after a few poor performances he tends to rebound. Bortles will take care of the football this week and help lead a couple of scoring drives to give Jacksonville a comfortable win. (Texans TT under 9.5 first half is another bet I like).
Trends to Note:
- Houston is 1-10 ATS in the last 11 games
- Houston is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games on the road
- Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games at home
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans LONDON
After a brutal game offensively and overall for the Titans this would typically be a scenario I would back the Titans. However, the Chargers flew out early and despite being on the road the week leading up to the game they did not travel back home. The Titans on the other hand are leaving Friday for a Sunday game. Teams who arrive earlier in the week are more acclimated to the time change and typically start out stronger. Another note: There have been 10 teams favorites by four points or more. All 10 won straight up and nine of them covered, beating the spread by 11.9 ppg. Chargers are the better team and if they can get out to an early lead they can get to Mariota who was sacked 11 times last week and let Melving chew clock and continue his hot start. (Chargers First Half -3.5 is another play I like).
Trends to Note:
- The Titans are 0-10 in the last 10 meetings ATS vs the Chargers
- Chargers are 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games
- Chargers 2-1 ATS in the last 3 on the road
Washington Redskins -1.5 vs Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is coming off what is perhaps the biggest win of the season. They utterly dismantled the Jaguars offensively and their defense played outstanding as well. Dallas has continued to rely on Ezekiel Elliot who has not disappointed. However, Washington defense has been strong this year, minus the game against New Orleans on Monday night, and they have been extremely strong against the run. Washington can take the run game away from Dallas and force Dak to throw. When defenses are prepared for Dak to throw he tends to struggle. As for the Redskins offesnse, Alex Smith is coming off a solid game against a strong Carolina defense. Washington has lost its last 5 at home to Dallas, this game will mean something to the team and its fans. It will be an electric atmosphere for the primetime afternoon slot and the Redksins will feed off that energy to guide them to a victory.
Trends to Note:
- Dalls is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games at Washington
- Washington are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games at home
- Washington is 15-8 ATS in the last 23 games when playing Dallas
BONUS College Football Play: Michigan State +7 vs Michigan
MSU has covered the last 10 in this series and Harbaugh not only struggles against his rivals (1-5) but struggles on the road were he is 6-5 in his last 11.