Player Props, Locks, and Drops: Thursday Night Overs Week 7

Reviewing the games last Sunday my eyes got wide and, in Javy Baez terms, tried to hit a bomb on every swing. Fellow Cubs fans know how that turns out and it is not a winning formula. Now, 5-6 (6-6 if counting the lean, which I will not) is not terrible, but it certainly did not live up to the title “Sunday Snipes”.

In quick review:

  • Thielen continues to be arguably the best receiver this season
  • Carlos Hyde as we know is not efficient or effective
  • Nyheim Hines took a backseat to a healthy Marlon Mack
  • Jameis will throw a lot, he likes Chris Godwin, OJ Howard>Cam Brate, Julio is good but still allergic to the end zone and Ridley got hurt

Record: 12-9-1

Aptly titled a Toilet Bowl Spectacular by my Full Slate colleagues this game needs SOMETHING to root for if you need a commercial break from better sporting events tonight.

Emmanuel Sanders Total Receptions: Over 5.5

Case Keenum has regressed from his (probably career best) 2017 form, but his check down preferences has led to a solid floor for Manny Sanders. He has been Keenum’s favorite target and the team’s leading receiver averaging 6.6 catches a game (over tonight’s total in the last two). On the defensive side, the Cardinals stick Patrick Peterson on one side of the field and the rest of the secondary is not a daunting matchup for Sanders who plays all over the formation. A similar type receiver, Adam Thielen, torched this zone approach last week. I am cautious to touch the yardage total with Keenum in the lower half of the NFL in yards per attempt, but as long as he continues finding our guy we can expect another “Manny being Manny” game.

David Johnson Rushing Yards: Over 76.5

This pick is a nod to how bad the Denver rush defense has been more than anything. DJ has not lit the world on fire quite like he did before his lost 2017, but the coaching staff, hopefully, has remembered that he is their best player. After seeing 13 or fewer carrier weeks one through three he has received 22, 18, and 18 since. Those carry totals have still not seen Johnson break this 76.5 rushing total so why make the pick? The Broncos have parted like the red sea for rushers over the last several games. They rank in the bottom five against opposing running backs and have allowed over 500(!) yards over the last two weeks. The Arizona game plan should be to take some pressure off of Josh Rosen by letting Johnson run wild.

Christian Kirk Receiving Yards: Over 53.5

Kirk has led the Cardinals in receiving over the last two weeks and the rookie connection with Josh Rosen is noticeable. With little competition and a rebuilding franchise Kirk has seized the opportunity to shine. Over his last four games Kirk has had games of 90, 85, and 77 with a clunker in an all-around gross game against Seattle. Kirk has run the majority of his routes on the outside and should avoid the tight Chris Harris slot coverage to face the burnable Bradley Roby. That coverage has allowed the fourth most in the league and I will be expecting Kirk to continue expanding his role with a solid over and DFS game tonight.

Keeping the overs coming!

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