Another winning night on Thursday! I was wrong about Saquon barely clearing that 60-something rushing total…in a huge way for the win. The Wentz to Ertz connection brought home another two wins.
Let’s dive into some quick hits for the early games.
Adam Thielen Total Receptions: Over 7.5/Lean Over 90.5 yards
Plus money for one of the most consistent performers at the wide receiver position? Thielen’s season lows(!) this year are 6 receptions, 10 targets, and 105 yards. Vikings are heavy favorites and Thielen is always in the mix as a player that can beat a defense at all three levels.
Carlos Hyde Total Rush Yards: Under 69.5
I don’t love unders, but this one jumped out to me. Hyde is facing a Chargers rush defense that allowed a combined 117 yards in the last two combined. Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb are asking for increased snaps (one verbally and the other performance based). Hyde has broken this total in just two of five even while receiving 16+ carries in every game. Not hitting 70 today.
Nyheim Hines Total Rushing+Receiving: Over 59.5
This seems similar to the number I cashed on with Nyheim against the Patriots last week. The Colts offense hasn’t evolved since then and the key parts through the air are still out (Doyle and T.Y.). Hines touch count and yardage has increased each of the last 4 weeks. Hines is fairly safe as far as script goes to clear this number.
Derek Carr Total Passing: Over 267.5
Amari Cooper Total Receiving: Over 54.5
As down as everyone has been on these two, and the Raiders as a whole, this is a spot in London for positive regression. Carr surprisingly ranks fifth in passing yards and he has cleared this total in every game this season. Amari is a little more difficult to predict trading boom weeks with busts like clockwork. In those bust weeks, he has faced a gauntlet of stud defensive backs. Now out of the coverage of Casey Hayward, this is a “scheduled” boom for the AC/DC connection.
Jameis Winston Total Completions: Over 23.5
Cameron Brate Receiving Yards: Over 35.5
Chris Godwin Receiving Yards: Over 42.5
Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley Receptions: Over 7 & Over 4
Julio Jones: To Score a TD…YES (-105)
Grouping this game together makes a lot of sense. Vegas total of 57.5, yes please. Air yards should be piling up on both sides. Everybody knows Mike Evans and Desean Jackson are capable of putting up numbers, but in a game that should be a shootout I will trust two of Jameis’ lesser known favorites to hit totals that could be reached with a few chunk plays. On the favored side of the shootout I am focused first and foremost on Julio Jones. The Buccaneers have allowed a TD to every #1 receiver this season! Last week Julio was held catchless into the fourth quarter and still finished with 5 for 62. Opposite Julio is Calvin Ridley who let down in another high scoring opportunity last week. Still, Ridley has grabbed 4+ since he cracked the rotation in week 2. Neither teams run games have inspired confidence and we should see plenty of overs on the player side today.