Sernick’s Super Contest Selections

 

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Hi Everyone,

I am excited to be a part of the Full Slate team. Going forward I will be posting my five best picks of the NFL slate, outlining what I like in each matchup and a few trends to note. I like to fade the public, take home dogs, and buy low on teams coming off a brutal loss. Below are my picks for the week and I will be sure to recap each weeks win/losses and hopefully make you all some money.

Miami Dolphins +4 vs Chicago Bears

I think this is the ultimate buy-low, sell-high situation of the week. The Bears and Mitch Trubisky are coming off a bye after throttling a Bucs team that doesn’t have much talent outside of WR, more on them later. The addition of Khalil Mack has boosted an already strong Chicago defense under Vic Fangio. However, Miami is playing at home after being embarrassed by the Patriots and blowing a 17-0 lead to not only lose to the Bengals but fail to cover six  points. That is why 60% of bets are on the Bears. Chicago is 3-15 in there last 18 on the road. Look for Tannehill to bounce back, Kenyan Drake to play well, and Adam Gase to get some revenge against his former team the Bears. Miami will stay inside of the number and has a great shot to win straight up.

Trends to note:

  • Miami is 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five at home
  • Bears are 3-1 ATS this season

Cincinnati Bengals ML -125 vs Pittsburgh

It is time for the NFL to take the Bengals seriously. They have been playing great offensively led behind Andy Dalton’s resurgence and a second threat at WR with Tyler Boyd. It was very encouraging to see Mixon come back and play strong following his brief stint on the injury report. The Steelers have really struggled on defense and I like Cincinnati’s ability to put points up on the board and run the ball late with Mixon. As for Pittsburgh, they have gotten their season back on track, however I think they still miss Le’Veon Bell a lot. Their offense is just a bit out of sync. They played well against an awful defense in Atlanta but this will be a much tougher test. Cincinnati is getting Burfict back and have gotten to the quarterback often. Look for Big Ben to have one of his classic shit show game on the road like last year against the Bears.

Trends to note:

  • Pittsburgh is 3-9 in the last 12 games ATS
  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 in the last 5 games against the Bengals  
  • Bengals 6-1 ATS and SU in the last 7 games

Atlanta Falcons -3 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This line screams like a public trap and it just screams a public play. However, the Bucs are bad, really bad. They can’t stop a drunk girl from sticking her head out of a limousine. I think Atlanta shows a bit of pride defensively early allowing Atlanta to take a big early lead. And while this game may finish with a combined score in the 80’s look for Julio Jones and Matt Ryan to finally, finally, connect for a few scores. Atlanta has also won its last three matchups with the Bucs, they are familiar with Jameis and this coaching staff. Atlanta jumps out ahead early and never looks back. (Atlanta first half is another play I really like). 

Trends to note:

  • Tampa 2-10 SU on the Road
  • Atlanta 7-3 SU when playing at home vs Tampa
  • 69% of the bets are on Atlanta (nice)

Denver Broncos +7 vs Los Angeles Rams

Denver is a much better team at home then on the road. The Rams despite many big names have struggled defensively giving up six yards per play. Offensively, the Rams have been one of the best teams in the league. However, Von Miller and the Denver defense will play much better at home and get to Goff enough to keep him off his game. Despite the many trends telling me otherwise, look for Case Keenum not to suck and play like he did most of last year.  Expect him to connect with Sanders and Thomas on a couple of big plays to keep Denver inside the number. 

Trends to note:

  • LA is 6-3 ATS in the last 9 road games
  • Denver is 1-6-1 in the last 8 games at home
  • 60% of the bets are on the Rams

Tennessee Titans +3 -125 vs Baltimore Ravens

This game figures to be a slug-fest and a low scoring affair. Both teams have played strong defensively specifically Tennessee who has only given up seven touchdowns in five games. Baltimore on the other hand is playing its 3rd straight road game, coming off a heart breaking loss to the Browns in Overtime. The Ravens may be gassed. Give me the team that has a little more rest playing at home in a low scoring defensive battle.

Trends to note:

  • Baltimore is 5-12 in the last 17 games on the road
  • Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games at home
  • Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

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