Welcome to Player Props, Locks, and Drops: Thursday Night Overs Week 6

Are multiple fantasy leagues, daily fantasy, and your typical spreads and totals not enough? Welcome to Player Props, Locks, and Drops where I will keep an eye on the player totals that bookmakers have allowed us to cash in on. Most of us need no reason to continue watching a 43-19 Thursday night football game, but if you were waivering, add some player props to that full slate!
Record to date: 4-2-1
I escaped with a 2-2 push on Monday with Alex Smith coming up a replay short of breaking my under. Also concerning was Alvin Kamara’s lack of usage but I am chalking that up to game flow with the Saints connecting on deep shots and Mark Ingram’s return (which did hit our 50.5 over)
My Thursday night overs:
Carson Wentz Total Completions and Pass Yards: Over 24.5/Leaning Over 270.5

Wentz has picked up some steam and looks to be over his injury which carried into the early season. He has completed 25, 33, and 24 passes and has broken 300 yards in consecutive weeks. Wentz has the healthiest receiving core the Eagles have fielded this year and lost Ajayi in the run game. I am skeptical of the Giants defense which has solid numbers against the pass, but those numbers are propped up by matchups with Bortles, Dak, and in a Saints game where the run D allowed 170 yards and 3 TDs. I am putting my money on a defensive let down against an Eagles team needing a win and you have to start with Wentz.

Corey Clement Rush Yards: Over 45.5
With Ajayi being placed on IR, the Eagles running game shifts to Clement and Wendell Smallwood. In the Eagles other game without Ajayi it was Clement picking up 16 carries for 56 yards. The Giants run defense allows 124.4 ypg and now recovered from the quad injury that kept him out (or on emergency duty) for weeks four and five Corey is scripted for an over game.
Zach Ertz Total Receptions: Over 6.5

Ertz has kept up his side of the bargain in the almost league wide vanishing act of tight ends. His target counts this season have been in the double digits every game and he has made good catching 10 or 11 balls in three of the past four. The Giants have done a solid job against the TE so far, but this is the first real pass catcher at the position they have played. Ertz keeps performing here catching 7+ and probably goes over his yardage total of 74.5.

Saquon Barkley Total Rush Yards: Over 63.5

Betting on talent here as Saquon has shown why he was worthy of an early pick in this year’s draft. The Eagles have not been tested in the run game with teams opting to go after their secondary than test the strength of their defensive line. In a divisional matchup the Giants need to get the ball to their playmakers. If this game is about clock management, which the Giants are learning the hard way, Saquon should carry the ball 15+ times and when he gets volume he has delivered. I do not expect him to blow past this total, but if he can average 3.5-4 yards per carry we could see another Thursday night over.

Keeping the overs coming!

 

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