MNF Week 5: Historical Night on the Horizon for Brees

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Line: Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints -6.5; O/U 51.5

As I sit here writing this, I think back on my many regrets. From recently choosing three road favorites as my locks of the week (woof), to even more recently letting an IU football game get me so worked up I threw my phone and broke the screen. Yes, you read that right, IU FOOTBALL! I won’t get into the whole story, you can listen on this week’s Sunday Scaries pod, but now I sit at the Apple Store with time to kill before my phone is ready. Figured I’d get up a Monday Night blog with some action I like in tonight’s showdown in the Bayou. Here are some quick tidbits that will show why I’m leaning a certain way:

  • Redskins are 5-0 ATS last 5 in New Orleans
  • Saints are 0-2 ATS at home this season

The 6.5 points the Redskins are getting is a big number. Adrian Peterson had a week off to recover from an ankle injury and you have to expect he will be playing extremely motivated tonight. For anyone who may not remember, AP was actually on the Saints last season. It wouldn’t be surprising if you don’t remember considering he barely played in his four games in a Saints uniform. The only lasting moment from his brief tenure with Washington is the death stare he gave Sean Payton on Monday Night last season. Washington shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on this Saints defense. Speaking of defense, I don’t think there will be much played tonight as I LOVE the over tonight. Yes, Washington’s defense is the top ranked scoring defense in the NFL and the Saints did show signs of the 2017 version of their defense last week vs. the Giants. But throw the stats out the window and listen to some more tidbits I have on why the over in this game is a lock. I’d venture to say this is my lock of the YEAR. Oh wow you must be thinking, this guys must have some great tidbits. Well here they are:

  • Since Jay Gruden became head coach, the over is 20-12 in Redskins road games
  • Since 2011, the over in games at the Superdome is  37-22-11, the best mark in the NFL
  • The last five match-ups between these teams the total has averaged 62.8 PPG with the LEAST amount of points scored being 53

I expect points and lots of them tonight. The Redskins’s defense hasn’t played an offense of this caliber yet, especially with the Saints getting Ingram back. And did you believe that whole bit I told you about the Saints defense looking back to normal last week against the Giants? It was the fucking Giants ahahah, fooled you guys. Drew Brees needs 201 passing yards tonight to become the NFL’s all time passing leader. He is also only four passing touchdowns away from reaching 500 for his career which is another monster milestone. You have to think Sean Peyton is going to be dialing up plays all night to get him both of these records in primetime.  Expect the Saints defense we saw against the Bucs and Falcons, as this will be an up-and-down shootout all night. Take the points with the Redskins, take the over and gear up for a fun Monday night game.

Prediction: Saints 31 Redskins 28

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