Let’s address the elephant in the room. I’m 0-2 in my Tums Preview picks, not great. It could be worse though; I could be 0-2 in my Locks of the Weeks (given out on our Pick’em Pod #subscribeRatereview) like @Pepe Silvia. As much as I’d love to keep talking about that Titans ferocious comeback vs. the Eagles, I’ll stop because my #1 job is to deliver content/winners and not talk about someone who has given out back-to-back road favorite losers. Before we move forward to Week 5, let’s first remember why the Chargers should never have been double-digit favorites.
49ers @ Chargers -10.5: The 49ers hit Philip Rivers and the Chargers in the mouth early, going up 17-6 in the 2nd quarter. For purposes of covering the spread, this was basically enough to ride out the cover. The 49ers lead the NFL in missed tackles and showed their prowess as league leader in the second half. Watch the 49ers defense this weekend and you’ll see that it’s like their trying to tackle someone covered in Vaseline. The real takeaway and fun plot line to monitor going forward: Philip Rivers trying to strangle Caleb Sturgis on the sideline after he inevitably misses an XP that keeps them from the playoffs. It’s the plot we don’t want as NFL fans; it’s the plot we NEED. FINAL: Chargers 29 49ers 27. This is a 7/10 on the TUMS METER. Think a boozy brunch, starting with a coffee to get some caffeine, and then you add 2 hours worth of mimosas into your stomach. It’s not the worst stomachache you’ve ever had. You just know it’s not going to end well, and that’s how it felt for anyone who tailed my Chargers pick last week around the 8 minutes into the second quarter.
I’m fired up to break my losing streak with these Tums Preview games and think the short week is exactly what I need. This week, we’ve got the Colts heading up to Foxboro to take on the Patriots for the first time since Deflategate.
Colts @ Patriots -10
The Weekly Case for the Dog: How does Andy Luck cover this one?
- Andy Luck comes into this game feeling good off his career high 464 passing yards and four TDs against the Titans. He’s guaranteed to get his in this one and compliment the Pat’s defensive players while he’s at it, even with TY Hilton and Jack Doyle missing this one due to injuries.
- The Colts defense isn’t awful? Yes, that’s an intentional question mark because I’m just as confused as you are about this. No, Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders aren’t back. Through four weeks of football, the Colts are actually second in the league in sacks. As the Giants have taught us before, getting pressure on Brady is the best way to disrupt the Patriots.
- The Colts are 8-4-1 ATS as road dogs in 2015/2016 with Luck under center (**hand on chin emoji**).
- Completely irrelevant to this one but I made a bet with @noodlesdelgado that Luck will never win a Super Bowl about three years ago. I’m feeling pretty good about that one but could be some bad mush juju brewing now as I’m writing this.
Enticed into taking the Colts? Those are some good angles but I’m not sold. The Patriots come into this 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and have outscored opponents 65-27 at Foxboro this year. It is worth noting that Gronk is likely to miss this one. Quite frankly, he hasn’t looked the same so far this year so I’m not sure it’s as big a loss as it normally would be. Instead, enter Julian Edelman, who is back after his long hiatus (last year’s injury + 4 game suspension this year). He’s a core piece of this offense and changes the dynamic of this team with his leadership and good looks. 10 points is certainly a lot but give me the Patriots in their first home game against the Colts since Deflategate. You may have to grab a few extra Tums for the fourth quarter as Luck tries to lead a backdoor cover but trust the Pats in this spot. I’ve taken the favorites my first two weeks doing this damn article. They say third time is the charm for a reason and I’m sticking with it (for at least one more week).
TUMS PICK OF THE WEEK: Patriots -10