MNF Week 4 Preview: Chiefs in a letdown spot?

Line: Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos +3.5; O/U 43.5

People may be wondering what my pick is for this game. Is that even a question? For anyone who has listened to the first two Pick Em Pods, you know I love road favorites. Has this strategy paid off for anyone who has tailed my locks of the weeks (Locks of the Week)? Up for debate. If you just look at it from a financial standpoint, then no, but in providing two thrilling contests where it looked like you won and lost the bet 20 different times throughout the game, I gave winners. So it should be no surprise that I LOVE the Chiefs in this spot tonight. I loved them when they opened as 4.5 points favorites and now that line has dropped to 3.5 I f***ing love them. Here are a few quick stats for anyone who may be doubting me:

  • Since Andy Reid took over as Head Coach in 2013, the Chiefs are 15-7 ATS as a road favorite, with an average margin of victory of 11.1 (2nd best mark in the NFL)
  • Also since 2013, the Chiefs have the best mark in the NFL ATS in divisional games at 21-10
  • Since the start of last season (AKA the Vance Joseph having the time of his life era), the Broncos have the WORST record in the NFL ATS at 4-13-2

Some may see this as a Patrick Mahomes let down game, but I don’t see it. I can see the Chiefs getting off to a sluggish start in this game as Denver rides the momentum of a home game under the lights. Case Keenum will have success moving the ball on this much maligned Kansas City defense. However, when it comes down to it, the Chiefs have too many play makers and Mahomes will be able to move it on this average Broncos secondary (Ranked 19th in defensive pass DVOA through 3 weeks).

Lay the points with the Chiefs, I’m due for a “winner” eventually.  Have confidence in Andy Reid being able to out coach Vance Joseph (not a hard task) and Mahomes out dueling Case Keenum (also not a hard task as some are saying Mahomes is unbelievably fantastic). Until we actually see the Chiefs offense slowed down, I have a hard time betting against them. Denver will put up a fight early but in the end the Chiefs offense is too explosive and will move to 4-0 on the season.

Prediction: Chiefs 31 Broncos 20

P.S: Final note, @fullslateStringbean wants to give me shit for an 0-2 start with my Locks of the Week on the Pick Em Pod? All I know is that coward is looking at a 0-2 hole as well in his Tums Picks of the Week. That’s what he gets for going against the likes of Josh Allen and C.J Beathard.

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