There’s something special about seeing the biggest spread of the week and thinking, “How on Earth does this happen?” And that’s what I’m going to break down for you every week: the game with the largest spread. It’s going to feel improbable. It’s going to feel gross. It may even make you sick thinking about taking the underdog. But, we’re going to go through this together anyway because this is the analysis you need.
Without further ado, I introduce to you the Tums Preview of the Week. The name derives from the fact that, whether you take all those points or lay all those points, you’re guaranteed to experience your fair share of indigestion while watching. Since we’re getting started during Week 3, let’s take a quick look at what the results of the first two Tums games were:
- Bucs @ Saints -9.5: The Bucs, led by plenty of Fitzmagic, won this one outright and led to so much Monday morning water cooler talk about how the Saints kicked Joey and Steve out of their survivor pool before their check cleared. FINAL: Bucs 48 Saints 40. A 9.5 point underdog winning outright translates to a TUMS METER of 9/10 a.k.a. how you feel after a day of wings / Bud Light.
- Cards @ Rams -13.5: This thing was over before it started as Gurley and the Rams trounced the corpse of Sam Bradford. FINAL: Rams 34 Cards 0. If anything this game, settled your stomach! TUMS METER = 0/10.
Alright, that’s enough background for now; let’s get to this week’s game.
Bills @ Vikings -16.5
To give some context to this line, it’s the 6th largest NFL point spread in the past 10 seasons. The favorite has went 2-2-1 ATS (Against the Spread) previously so (maybe) get ready to jump through some tables #BillsMafia! I have some suspicion that we may be talking about the Bills and Cardinals a lot this season so buckle up for some big time double-digit underdogs!
Do Josh Allen and Co. stand any chance against the vaunted Vikings D at U.S. Bank Stadium? I’ll give the rookie some credit: 1) he’s tall 2) he’s no Nathan Peterman. Allen showed some signs in his first start at home against the Chargers, throwing for 245 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT (we’ll call this a poor man’s Peterman). The Bills only lost by 11 after getting absolutely embarrassed in Week 1 against the Ravens. The common man (a.k.a. me) thinks the Bills have no chance in this spot. BUT, not so fast my friend because as the great Chris Berman once said, “NO ONE CIRCLES THE WAGONS LIKE THE BUFFALO BILLS!”
The Case for Circling the Wagons
- Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive ATS losses.
- Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Vikings are due for a letdown after their emotional tie at Lambeau. LOL – but seriously it was a big comeback tie for them. Comeback tie isn’t a phrase used enough in sports.
- Their locker room is void of quitters after Vontae Davis retired??? (TBD)
Alright, I’m grasping at straws here. I love the Vikings in this game. Here’s a nice fun fact for all of you looking for a reason, besides your brain, for taking the Vikings: Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in 2014, the Vikings are an NFL-best 25-10 ATS at home. Lay the points, chew on your Vikings-themed Grape Tums, and ride with the home favorite.
TUMS PICK OF THE WEEK: Vikings – 16.5