Line: Jets @ Browns -3.5; O/U 40
“I want my picks back, and David god damn Putney.”- Sonny Weaver Jr.
Along with that legendary draft day, tonight is another historic night for the Cleveland Browns. Tonight’s tilt with the New York Jets marks the first time since Week 14 of the 2015 season that the Browns are home favorites. You read that right, the last time Browns were favored at home it was Johnny Manziel leading them to a victory over the Blaine-Gabbert-led 49ers. For those keeping score at home that game was played 1,012 days ago! So yeah, I’d say tonight is a big game for Cleveland.
This game involves two coaches who are on a seat warmer than average. New York’s thrashing of the Lions Week 1 only raised expectations for the season. Sam Darnold looks legit and the defense features a lot of young talent. Last week’s dud vs. Miami might have been a better representation of the Jets team we may see all season but Todd Bowles can’t afford many more like it. Coming off back-to-back 5-11 seasons, Bowles needs to start eating some W’s. (Shout out Jameis)
Do people feel bad for Hue Jackson? It’s really hard to say. Any coach who keeps their job after going 1-31 in two seasons is hard to pity. He really should be applauded for somehow mind tricking John Dorsey into keeping him for another season. However, when Cleveland had chances to win each of its first two games you can see Hue trying to hold back a smile. Trying to just wait for the ball to go through the uprights and celebrate the thing that has eluded him for so long. This compares to the feeling of getting a 20 off the draw in Blackjack. Your friends slap your shoulders and say, “fuck yeah! You got this easy.” You look at them with disgust as you know they’ve just cursed you. Then the dealer is showing a 6 and you breathe easy thinking you got this. Then he flips over a 2, then a 3, then a 4, then a 6 and your head drops on the table. (In case you don’t know how blackjack works or don’t know how to count that comes out to 21 which means you’re fucked). Hue Jackson is all of us just hoping for the dealer to bust and get the win.
Numbers/trends coming into tonight’s game:
- Cleveland and New York are ranked 1,2 respectively in takeaways
- Cleveland is 6-12-1 in its last 19 ATS
- Jets are 5-0 their last 5 SU and ATS vs Cleveland
- 63% of the public are on the Browns ATS; 58% on Browns ML
Pick: Jets +3.5
Did I provide a lot of insight on why I’m making this pick? Eh, probably not. It’s just hard for me to imagine the Browns are favorites over anyone by 3.5 points. Both of these teams have good defenses so it’ll be a low scoring, sloppy game. Darnold is better then Tyrod so I like the Jets to keep it close.
Browns 17 Jets 14